Shoppers across the nation are increasingly feeling the effects of rising grocery prices, and experts warn that this trend shows no signs of slowing down.
As inflation continues to raise prices, looming tariffs on imported goods are poised to further escalate costs for essential food items, including staples like eggs, avocados, canned foods and aluminum-packaged products, according to the Associated Press.
Tyler Schipper, an associate professor of economics and data science at the University of St. Thomas, emphasized the alarming uptick in grocery prices and said that food-at-home expenses have surged in the past month.
“The grocery store has started to pick up a little bit,” Schipper said. “Last month, we witnessed a month-over-month increase of approximately half a percent, marking the fastest rate of change since October 2022.”
He said that while inflation in the grocery sector has eased since its post-pandemic peak, prices remain unacceptably high due to various contributing factors.
Notably, the United States relies on imports for 60% of its fresh fruits and 40% of its fresh vegetables from Mexico, rendering these essential categories particularly susceptible to price hikes if new tariffs are implemented.
“If there’s a 25% tariff on Mexico, consumers will feel the impact right in the produce aisle,” Schipper said.
Unlike dry and packaged goods, fresh produce has a limited shelf life, severely restricting wholesalers’ and grocers’ ability to absorb any cost increases.
Additionally, eggs — which have already experienced significant price volatility due to supply chain disruptions and fluctuating production costs — are projected to become even pricier, primarily due to avian flu outbreaks that have constrained supply.
Schipper said that tariffs on Canadian oil could lead to increased gas prices, compounding this issue. “Consumers feel the pinch of rising gas prices, and those costs inevitably flow into everything else, including grocery bills,” Schipper said.
Agapitos Papagapitos, a professor in macroeconomics at the University of St. Thomas, pointed out that while prices have only risen by 3 to 4% annually, public perception of a much larger spike stems from comparisons to pre-pandemic levels.
“If you ask people what has happened to food prices over the last year, most would claim they’ve risen by 20%, which simply isn’t accurate,” Papagapitos said. “They’ve increased by about 3%, yet many are comparing it to four or five years ago or pre-pandemic times.”
Papagapitos said the misperception stems from a critical issue: businesses routinely pass their increased costs onto consumers.
In sectors like food service, menu prices have often escalated more than the actual cost increases due to additional factors such as labor shortages and rising wages.
“We’ve seen consistent reports over the last three or four years detailing the difficulties in finding staff,” Papagapitos said. “This labor shortage leads to higher wages, which are costs ultimately passed on to diners.”
The rationale behind tariffs remains a contentious topic.
Schipper said that while they are frequently portrayed as a mechanism to protect domestic industries, they act as a regressive tax, disproportionately impacting lower-income households that dedicate a larger portion of their income to necessities such as food and housing.
“This is particularly devastating for those who are already struggling to make ends meet. Imposing tariffs will only deepen their hardships,” Schipper said.
Schipper also said that political dynamics have a significant influence in tariff decisions, creating scenarios where trade policies are often wielded as bargaining chips in negotiations involving unrelated issues, such as immigration enforcement.
“In past discussions about tariffs and free trade negotiations, the focus was traditionally on trade and working conditions, not on conflating separate economic issues with tariffs. This represents a significant shift from historical norms,” Schipper said.
Jasmine Rollins, a sophomore at the University of St. Thomas, said that rising grocery prices have affected her personal budget.
“It’s caused me to get less things,” Rollins said. “When I do meal prep, I’ve noticed that I can’t get as much for the same price, and I have to spend more money to buy the same amount of things. It affects my budgeting and my meals that I would like to make.”
Rollins said she has noticed a significant rise in the price of essential items like eggs and milk.
“I make eggs in the morning, and so I try to make it less, since they are more expensive, just so I can buy other things and incorporate different things into my meals,” Rollins said.
She said she has also adjusted her grocery shopping habits by opting for store-brand products to save money.
“I kind of resorted to going with off-brand things,” Rollins said. “They taste the same, but I’m not paying that much for the same item.”
Papagapitos noted that, even with continued debates over tariffs and inflation, grocery prices are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels.
“Ordinarily, when prices rise, it’s very seldom that they will come back down,” Papagapitos said.
In this changing landscape, Papagapitos said that there isn’t much consumers can do about food prices.
“This issue moving forward seems like a bit of a moving target,” Schipper said. “I’m thinking about tariffs a lot, and I’m having a hard time following what’s been implemented and what’s been pushed off. That’s important because it affects prices, and if costs stay high, the Federal Reserve may delay lowering interest rates, which impacts credit cards, student loans, and mortgages.”
With shifting trade policies and inflation concerns, many consumers struggle to track how costs will fluctuate. Looking ahead, Rollins said she was concerned about the long-term impact of rising food prices on college students.
“Some students don’t have jobs or the ability to go get groceries every week,” Rollins said. “With prices going up, it’s just going to make it harder for students, and when we graduate and enter the real world, it’s going to be even harder to afford groceries.”
Tariffs and other economic factors influence not just grocery bills, but also larger financial decisions, as interest rates remain tied to the Federal Reserve’s response to inflation trends.
“It’s not like you can just boycott groceries if they get too expensive,” Papagapitos said. “But you can cut back on certain products or switch to alternatives, like store-brand items.”
Natulia Momo can be reached at momo4842@stthomas.edu.
