Another awards circuit has come and gone, and it all leads up to the 97th Academy Awards ceremony on March 2. For awards pundits, the 11-month award slog that kicked off with the Cannes Film Festival in May has lined itself up to be a fairly predictable Oscar race. Instead, the intrigue of the race rested in some of the nominees’ messy campaigns.
In the end, though, “The Brutalist’”s AI controversy, “Anora”’s intimacy coordinator mess and Fernanda Torres’ exposure for doing blackface were no match for the hot topic that was “Emilia Pérez.”
The film, at first lauded for its transgender representation, soon became plagued with controversy for its representation of Mexico (the film was directed by a French man who admitted to having done little research, and it was filmed in a studio outside Paris).
This is all common awards fodder we’ve seen time and time again — see: Harvey Weinstein’s campaign against “Saving Private Ryan” in 1999 — but we’ve never seen something as self-inflicted as “Emilia Pérez’”’s Karla Sofia Gascón problem.
Almost immediately after Gascon made history as the first openly transgender actor to be nominated, her past incendiary tweets about George Floyd, Islam, Adolf Hitler and even the Oscars ceremony itself blew up online. Cue a defensive apology campaign by Gascón that could have been managed if the film’s distributor, Netflix, did a quick search of her public social media accounts.
Now, with Gascon and so many other prospective candidates on the back burner, the field sits open for many more deserving — and undeserving — winners to take hold, unlike the sweep-heavy wins seen in 2023 and 2024.
All of that is to say: here’s what will win and what we think deserves to win at the 2025 Academy Awards.
Film Editing
Who will win
Juliette Welfling- “Emilia Pérez”
There’s an exception to every rule — or nearly-broken rule, in this case — and “Emilia Pérez” is proof of that. Welfling’s energetic cuts project the exact over-edited veneer of style and pacing that the Academy loves to recognize. To boot, this is nowhere more obvious than in the film’s musical numbers, two of which, “El Mal” and “Mi Camino,” already have a chokehold on the Best Original Song category, as well.
Who should win
David Jancso- “The Brutalist”
Among competitors like “Emilia Pérez” and “Conclave” that seem intent on sticking their foot in the pie to make the editor’s presence known, Jancso’s work on “The Brutalist” is the sign of an intentional yet invigorating hand at the wheel. It knows which shots to hang on (usually for longer than you’d expect) before cutting right as you were sucking in your breath.
Music(Original Score)
Who will win
Daniel Blumberg- “The Brutalist”
Blumberg’s muted score is the only viable option here, as Hans Zimmer’s “Dune: Part Two” score was ineligible and Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’ score for “Challengers” wasn’t even nominated, for some reason. “The Brutalist” won the BAFTA for Best Score, the only precursor it could win that Reznor and Ross didn’t take home.
Who should win
Volker Bertelmann- “Conclave”
Bertelmann already has an Oscar for his work on “All Quiet on the Western Front,” but his heavy-on-the-strings take on a papal conclave perfectly fit the high stakes of the film. Case in point: the intrigue of “I Don’t Want Your Vote.” Listen and thank us later.
Sound
Who will win
“Dune: Part 2”
While it’s faced with several likely competitors, “Dune: Part 2”’s sound is an integral feature of the sci-fi blockbuster, and you can bet that Academy ears will notice. It doesn’t hurt that the BAFTAs were tuned the same way, either.
Who should win
“Dune”’s sound may make itself sand-shakingly apparent, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t a powerful and often nuanced addition to its filmmaking kit. Each reverberating thumper or barely-audible spacesuit hum feeds into the aesthetic of Villeneuve’s epic storytelling, so a win for this one sounds just perfect to us.
Animated Feature Film
Who will win
“The Wild Robot”
Don’t let “Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl’”s win at the BAFTAS fool you; “The Wild Robot” is a surefire pick here because of its double nomination in the Best Score category. Double nominations for films usually only nominated in one category is a general signifier it will win at least one of them. Yes, “Flow” is double nominated here, too, but “Emilia Pérez” will certainly score the International Feature category among its deluge of 13 nominations.
Who should win
“The Wild Robot”
Of this year’s competitive lineup, “Robot” was the only real tear-jerker here. If an abandoned robot becoming the caretaker of an orphaned duck doesn’t at least make you sniffle, then we don’t know what will.
International Feature Film
Who will win
“Emilia Pérez”
“Emilia Pérez” is a lock in this category because of its nominations in 12 other categories.
Who should win
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
After Germany’s “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” was selected to show at the Cannes Film Festival, director Mohammad Rasoulof was sentenced to eight years in prison in Iran because of the film’s criticism of the Iranian government. He escaped Iran on foot to later attend the film’s premiere. The film itself serves as an allegory for Iran’s conservative government and its takeover of women’s autonomy.
Original Screenplay
Who will win
Sean Baker- “Anora”
“Anora”’s fast-talking, constantly-overlapping dialogue impressed enough for it to win big in this category at the Writer’s Guild of America. It’s also the only nominee with a clear track towards Best Picture — and an obligatory screenplay win would be its first step out the gate.
Who should win
Sean Baker- “Anora”
While the film’s vaunted awards success may be overblown, “Anora”’s script is by far its most impressive accomplishment, telling a fragmented and chaotic story in a way that still makes for a coherently structured and emotionally challenging film. Without Baker’s talent for storytelling through naturalistic dialogue and character interaction, the film would hardly have registered on any awards pundit’s yearly round-up.
Adapted Screenplay
Who will win
Peter Straughan- “Conclave”
In an ironic turn given its subject matter, “Conclave” can work the Academy’s political machine as well as anybody, and its placement in Adapted Screenplay with a relatively weak lineup of competitors is proof of that — even more so considering “Emilia Pérez”’s uphill battle needed to become the first foreign-language film to win in the category.
Who should win
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar- “Sing Sing”
While plenty of prison films do an admirable job of humanizing their inmate characters, “Sing Sing”’s task of creating these empathetic portraits as reflections of real-life convicts (played largely by the people they’re based on) is a work of true magic. It’s all the more astounding that Bentley and Kwedar do this while balancing a monologue from “Hamlet” as a recurringly poignant motif, but it’s hard to be surprised in a film so elevated by its inspiringly-crafted script.
Actor in Supporting Role
Who will win
Kieran Culkin- “A Real Pain”
Kieran Culkin is a lock here after his winning sweep at the BAFTAs, Critics Choice Awards, Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild Awards.
Who should win
Jeremy Strong- “The Apprentice”
Jeremy Strong has been somewhat ridiculed for his intense take on the acting process over the years, but whatever he does, it sure worked in “The Apprentice.” Strong perfectly captures real-life lawyer Roy Cohn’s journey from top Donald Trump adviser to disbarment as lawyer and death of HIV.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Who will win
Zoe Saldaña- “Emilia Pérez”
With wins at the BAFTAs, Critics Choice Awards and Golden Globes under her belt, Saldaña is just as, if not more, untouchable to win Best Supporting Actress than Culkin in his respective category.
Who should win
Zoe Saldaña- “Emilia Pérez”
“Emilia Pérez” has problems — somehow even more than it has nominations — but Saldaña is the last of them. Her work in the film grounds the often-ridiculous proceedings and saves several musical numbers from utter disaster; there’s a strong case to be made that she belonged in Best Actress instead, though she would have been one of our top choices there, too.
Best Actor
Who will win
Adrien Brody- “The Brutalist”
Twenty-two years after becoming the youngest person to ever win Best Actor, Adrien Brody is set to win again for his work as Láslzó Tóth in “The Brutalist.” He’s already won the BAFTA, Critics Choice and Golden Globe. Timothée Chalamet’s win at SAG is a red herring — no one has ever won the Best Actor Oscar with only a SAG win. In fact, only six actors have ever pulled it off, most recently Jamie Lee Curtis in “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”
Who should win
Sebastian Stan- “The Apprentice”
In a moment where many industries — Hollywood especially — feel adrift in the political cross-breeze, Stan’s take on Trump is an unexpected but wholly welcome addition to the usual suspects on the podium. Unlike Chalamet’s Dylan, his performance is no mere impression, and his interpretation of the up-and-coming mogul hides more depth and quiet skill than a solid half of the year’s Best Picture line-up combined.
Best Actress
Who will win
Demi Moore- “The Substance”
The Best Actress race is lining up to be a close one between Demi Moore and Mikey Madison, but Madison’s sole BAFTA win won’t be enough compared to Moore’s wins at the Golden Globes, CCA and SAG. Not to mention, Moore has the decade-spanning career behind her, which the Academy so-often enjoys rewarding actors for. Her stretch of acceptance speeches so far have been going the distance, and so will she.
Who should win
Cynthia Erivo- “Wicked”
While it may have been one of the most commercialized films of last year, Erivo’s performance as Elphaba in “Wicked” cuts to the heart of everything the character — and story — should be. In a film bogged down by special effects and cheap blockbuster conventions, Erivo shines through the noise and connects with the audience in a way that harkens back to the raw emotive power of the Broadway stage. When she smiles, we smile. When she cries, we cry. And when she defies gravity… well, you get the idea.
Best Director
Who will win
Sean Baker- “Anora”
While Best Director looks like a toss-up between Baker and “The Brutalist”’s Brady Corbet, Baker won over the crowd at the Director’s Guild Awards and looks to do the same at the Academy. Best Picture winners typically rack up wins in major categories like Director and Screenplay, and “Anora” has the clearest path to knock down all three.
Who should win
Brady Corbet- “The Brutalist”
Even after confirming the use of AI in his film, Corbet is still the “best of the worst” of this year’s lineup. His directing may lean into the melodrama of a typical weighty, awards-season drama, but his work holds up the film for the entire three-and-a-half-hour runtime — something that none of his contemporaries in the category can claim to have done with even shorter films.
Best Picture
Who will win
“Anora”
“Anora” took home the CCA, DGA and the Producers Guild Award for best film, and after seeing its competition like “Emilia Pérez” and “The Brutalist” get quietly sidelined, “Conclave” style, it’s clear that its awards favorability peaked at just the right time to steal important wins like Director and Original Screenplay. Even without a guaranteed win for Mikey Madison, “Anora” has the clearest chance at winning over enough of the Academy to take the top prize, though it likely won’t manage the same kind of enormous sweep seen by “Oppenheimer” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”
Who should win
“Dune: Part 2”
This awards season, the second “Dune” film has been sidelined in anticipation of the third film, à la “The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers” in 2003. Hopefully, the academy will finally recognize the brilliance of the franchise and director Denis Villeneuve for “Dune 3” as they did for “Return of the King” in 2004. But if we’re recognizing actual greatness here, the combined work of cinematographer Greig Frasier, editor Joe Walker and Villeneuve made for a masterful addition to the “Dune” franchise, and a well-deserved Best Picture win.
The Oscars air at 6 p.m. CST March 2 on ABC/Hulu.
Anya Capistrant-Kinney can be reached at capi2087@stthomas.edu.
Kevin Lynch can be reached at lync1832@stthomas.edu.
